Early stages of Covid 19 saw large-scale flight from major cities to the perceived safety of the countryside and smaller towns but this was only temporary with the global urban population back on track to grow by another 2.2 billion people by 2050. This comes from the new report “UN Habitat World Cities Report 2022 Envisaging the Future of Cities“.
“Cities are here to stay, and that the future of humanity is undoubtedly urban, but not exclusively in large metropolitan areas,” the UN Habitat report stressed.
WORLD TO BE URBAN
Noting that the world was witnessing a world that will continue to urbanize over the next three decades-from 56 per cent in 2021 to 68 per cent in 2050, the report stated that this meant an increase of 2.2 billion urban residents, living mostly in Africa and Asia. The report tells that all regions are expected to become more urbanized, although highly urbanized and more developed regions are expected to stabilize or experience a decline in urban growth.
In the Foreword, UN Secretary General António Guterres said; “The World Cities Report 2022 stresses that building resilience must be at the heart of the cities of the future. The success of cities, towns and urban areas will largely depend on policies that protect and sustain all, leaving no one behind. We need green investment for sustainable patterns of consumption and production; responsive and inclusive urban planning; the prioritization of public health; and innovation and technology for all.”
BUILD BACK DIFFERENTLY
Urbanization remains a powerful 21st century mega-trend,” said Maimunah Mohd Sharif, UN UnderSecretary-General and Executive Director of UN-Habitat.”That entails numerous challenges, which were further exposed and exacerbated by the pandemic. But there is a sense of optimism that COVID-19 has provided us with the opportunity to build back differently. With the right policies and the right commitment from governments, our children can inherit an urban future that is more inclusive, greener, safer and healthier.”
UNIFORM
In the report, the UN Habitat points out that the future of cities is not uniform across regions and can lead to a range of scenarios. In developing countries, urban priorities for the future are rising levels of poverty, providing adequate infrastructure, affordable and adequate housing and addressing challenge of slums, high levels of youth unemployment, and investing in secondary cities. How these challenges are addressed will lead to a range of future scenarios, it said.
URBAN FUTURES
The UN Habitat mentions that the impacts of ongoing COVID-19 pandemic as well as global economic uncertainties, environmental challenges, and wars and conflicts in different parts of the world could have long-term impacts on the future of cities. For instance, cities in Africa could lose up to two-thirds of their financial resources and the weak urban service delivery and governance systems in some of these cities could collapse. If global action against multiple urban challenges fails and this bleak scenario becomes a reality, the credibility of the multilateral system would be compromised, thereby undermining coordination efforts to address urgent and pressing global issues.
THREE SCENARIOS
The report identified three potential scenarios for the world’s cities. In the worst-case or “high damage” scenario, the number of people living in poverty could increase by more than 200 million by 2050. The “pessimistic” scenario foresees a reversion to the status quo before the pandemic, a business-as-usual approach that would lock in cycles of poverty, poor productivity, inequality and unhealthy living for decades. In the optimistic vision, by 2050 there could be 260 million people lifted out of poverty compared to the pre-COVID baseline. Governments and donors would invest in urban development sufficiently to create just resilient, healthy and prosperous cities everywhere.
Further, the report states that globally, 1.6 billion people or 20 per cent of the world’s population live in inadequate housing, of which one billion reside in slums and informal settlements.
KEY MESSAGES
- Building resilience must be at the heart of the future of cities
- Urban areas need to be prepared for dynamic and unpredictable futures
- Any vision for an optimistic future of cities must embody a new social contract with universal basic income, health coverage and housing
- Localizing the New Urban Agenda and SDG 11 is the most promising pathway to the optimistic scenario of urban future.
- Low income countries have much higher absolute and relative city population growth than higher income countries. From 1975 to 2020, their city population grew fourfold to about 300 million. By 2070, their population is projected to exceed 700 million.
- Most expansion of city land area will occur in low income countries-without effective planning, urban sprawl might become a low-income country phenomenon
- Managing city density is the key future sustainability challenge for low-income countries
- Without concerted action at all levels, poverty and inequality could become the face of the future of cities
- Gender transformative approaches are crucial for building inclusive urban futures
- Economic diversification is a critical pillar for urban economic resilience and productive urban futures
- Future economic growth and resilience cannot be sustained without bridging the infrastructure gaps across the urban-rural continuum
- Cities should embrace the circular economy as a new frontier in the pursuit of sustainability and resilience
- The twin crises of climate change and the loss of global biodiversity threaten the futures of cities
- Nature-based solutions must be part of inclusive planning processes for sustainable urban futures
- City authorities should invest in the multiple co-benefits of green infrastructure development
- The shift in armed conflicts to urban battlegrounds is another growing concern that could lead to the high damage scenario for urban futures