As Xi Jinping begins his third term as China’s President, the Chinas Communist Party (CCP0 will work to press Taiwan on unification, undercut U.S. influence, drive wedges between Washington and its partners, and foster some norms that favour its authoritarian system, said the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U S Intelligence Community
At the same time, China’s leaders probably will seek opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when they believe it suits their interests, said the report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said.
It said that Beijing sees increasingly competitive U.S.–China relations as part of an epochal geopolitical shift and views Washington’s diplomatic, economic, military, and technological measures against Beijing as part of a broader U.S. effort to prevent China’s rise and undermine CCP rule.
Moreover, the report mentioned that the rulers are increasingly combining growing military power with its economic, technological, and diplomatic influence to strengthen CCP rule, secure what it views as its sovereign territory and regional pre-eminence, and pursue global influence.
TAIWAN
The US report said that Beijing in 2023 will continue to apply pressure and possibly offer inducements for Taiwan to move toward unification and will react to what it views as increased U.S.–Taiwan engagement. “Beijing claims that the United States is using Taiwan as a “pawn” to undermine China’s rise, and will continue to take stronger measures to push back against perceived increases in support to Taiwan. Beijing may build on its actions from 2022, which could include more Taiwan Strait centreline crossings or missile overflights of Taiwan,” the report said.
“Beijing’s control over Taiwan, if it succeeded in accomplishing its goal, probably would have wide-ranging effects, including disruption to global supply chains for semiconductor chips because Taiwan dominates production of cutting-edge chips,” the US report said. .
Despite global backlash over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China will maintain its diplomatic, defence, economic, and technology cooperation with Russia to continue trying to challenge the United States, even as it will limit public support.
MILITARY CAPABILITIES
- Beijing is accelerating the development of key capabilities that it believes the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) needs to confront the United States in a large-scale, sustained conflict.
- Beijing is working to meet its goal of fielding a military by 2027 designed to deter U.S. intervention in a future cross-Strait crisis.
- The PLA Navy and Air Force already are the largest in the region and continue to field advanced platforms that improve China’s ability to try to establish air superiority and project power beyond the first island chain.
- The PLA Rocket Force’s (PLARF) short-, medium-, and intermediate-range conventional systems probably already can hold U.S. forces and bases in the region at risk.
- The PLA will continue to pursue the establishment of overseas military installations and access agreements in an attempt to project power and protect China’s interests abroad.
- In addition to continuing to develop its existing military base in Djibouti, Beijing reportedly is pursuing potential bases in Cambodia, Equatorial Guinea, and the UAE.
CHALLENGES
The US report also points out to some of the challenges that the country faced. These include an ageing population, high levels of corporate debt, economic inequality, and growing resistance to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) heavy handed tactics in Taiwan and other countries, it said.
CHINA SPACE
- China is steadily progressing toward its goal of becoming a world-class space leader, with the intent to match or surpass the United States by 2045.
- Even by 2030, China probably will achieve world-class status in all but a few space technology areas.
- China’s space activities are designed to advance its global standing and strengthen its attempts to erode U.S. influence across military, technological, economic, and diplomatic spheres.
- China’s commercial space sector is growing quickly and is on pace to become a major global competitor by 2030.
- Counter space operations will be integral to potential PLA military campaigns, and China has counterspace-weapons capabilities intended to target U.S. and allied satellites.
TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMICS
- China will remain the top threat to U.S. technological competitiveness, as Beijing targets key sectors and proprietary commercial and military technology from U.S. and allied companies and institutions.
- The Government of China is doubling down on efforts to boost indigenous innovation and to become self-sufficient.
- Beijing’s willingness to use espionage, subsidies, and trade policy to try to give its firms a competitive advantage represents not just an ongoing challenge for the U.S. economy and its workers, but also advances Beijing’s attempts to assume leadership of the world’s technological advancement and standards.
- China is central to global supply chains in a range of technology sectors, including semiconductors, critical minerals, batteries, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals.
- China is leading the world in building new chip factories, with plans to build dozens of semiconductor factories by 2024, most of which will be dedicated to producing older, more mature technologies. While China only accounted for 11 percent of worldwide semiconductor fabrication capacity in 2019, it is forecasted to reach 18 percent in 2025.
- China produces 40 percent of the world’s active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), the key ingredients in medicinal drugs; and China’s global share across all the manufacturing stages of solar panels now exceeds 80 percent and is set to rise to more than 95 percent during the coming years.
MALIGN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS
- Beijing will continue expanding its global intelligence and covert influence posture to better support the CCP’s political, economic, and security goals.
- China is attempting to sow doubts about U.S. leadership, undermine democracy, and extend Beijing’s influence, particularly in East Asia and the western Pacific, which Beijing views as its sphere of influence.
- China is rapidly expanding and improving its artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analytics capabilities, which could expand beyond domestic use.