New methods in early weather predictions to help farmers

The variations in Monsoon and weather fluctuations can have adverse impact on agriculture. Most of the time farmers even face crop loss because of unexpected climatic changes. Well, there is now good news for the farmers in India. A group of scientists, including those of Indian-origin, have developed a new mechanism for predicting early forecasts of the variations in monsoon season.

The researchers are from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the United Kingdom. Climate Dynamics Journal published the findings in their latest edition.

Early predictions to help in preparations against unexpected rainfall

The researchers claimed that their model gave accurate forecasts a month in advance for the timing of the monsoon in India’s major agricultural regions. They said that the farmers in India would benefit once they have prior information about the weather conditions and Monsoon. This will help them to get prepared earlier for unexpected heavy rainfall or extended dry periods. The monsoon season in India brings around 80 per cent of India’s annual rainfall. Small variations in the timing of its arrival will huge impact on agriculture.

New mechanism to make a big difference

Co-author Amulya Chevuturi (University of Reading, UK) noted that predicting year-to-year variations was challenging. He said that their system could make a big difference in forecasting monsoon and help the farmers in a great way. He pointed out that a month’s warning of deluge or drought was valuable for the farmers. In the study, the researchers analysed 36 years of monsoon data to evaluate the effectiveness of the ECMWF’S  latest seasonal forecasting system -SEAS5 – in predicting how the Indian monsoon differ from the long-term average. The researchers said that SEAS5 was better at predicting early or late monsoon arrival. They noted that predictions were correct for monsoon rainfall pattern across the country.

 

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