Global demand for meat, dairy, and fish is set to rise. This steady climb is projected over the next decade. Rising incomes and urbanization in middle-income countries drive this trend. However, persistent nutritional gaps and environmental pressures create a complex path forward. This is according to a new study.
The “Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034“, released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and OECD forecasts significant changes. It projects a six percent increase in global per capita consumption of animal-source foods by 2034. This includes beef, pork, poultry, fish, and dairy products. This trend is most pronounced in lower middle-income countries. Here, intake is expected to rise by 24 percent. This far outpaces the global average increase.
DISPARITIES IN NUTRITION AND ACCESS
Increased consumption in middle-income economies links to rising incomes. Changing dietary preferences and urbanization also play a role. Daily per capita intake of animal-sourced foods in these countries could reach 364 kilocalories. This surpasses the 300 kcal benchmark.
Despite these gains, consumption in low-income countries remains low. It will reach just 143 kcal per day. This is less than half the amount needed for a healthy diet. It highlights stark inequalities in access to nutrient-rich diets. Ensuring food security for everyone remains a significant challenge. Greater efforts are needed to benefit the lowest-income countries.
PRODUCTION GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS
Global agricultural and fish production must expand to meet demand. However, this growth comes with environmental implications.
Agricultural and fish production is projected to increase by 14 percent. Productivity gains in middle-income nations drive this. Output of meat, dairy, and eggs could grow by 17 percent.
Total livestock inventories are projected to expand by seven percent. However, direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are set to rise by six percent by 2034. This occurs despite improvements in emissions intensity. The overall environmental footprint will grow without additional measures.
ACHIEVING A WIN-WIN: NOURISHMENT AND REDUCED EMISSIONS
The report outlines a promising scenario. It shows how nourishment can improve for all. Agricultural emissions can simultaneously reduce. Achieving this dual outcome requires major investments. Productivity must improve significantly. Widespread adoption of low-emission technologies is crucial. These include precision farming and improved livestock feed. Prioritizing nutritional production also helps.
Future progress depends on policy coordination and technological innovation. Targeted investments are vital, especially where demand and nutritional value gaps are stark. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann stated we have tools to end hunger.
THE INDISPENSABLE ROLE OF GLOBAL TRADE
International trade plays a pivotal role in global food security. It balances food deficits and surpluses. The Outlook reiterates trade’s importance. By 2034, 22 percent of all calories eaten will cross international borders. International trade remains indispensable to the global agri-food sector. Multilateral cooperation and rules-based agricultural trade are essential. They facilitate trade flows and stabilize prices.
This enhances food security, nutrition, and environmental sustainability. Coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open. They must foster long-term productivity and sustainability in agriculture.
