Kerala, considered the best state in India in terms of Health, is finding it hard to bring down Covid 19 infection even as the national tally of new cases remained low. A new mathematical study revealed that Kerala along with North Eastern states witnessed a slightly higher rate of spread of the pandemic when compared to the national level.
The study by the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai revealed that the R-factor that indicates the speed at which COVID-19 infection is spreading in the country is climbing steadily with Kerala and north-eastern states.
In the study, the researchers noted that Kerala has the highest number of active cases. The state continued to have an R-value around 1.11. This means that the state is going to remain in top spot in the coming days. The same is the situation with some of the North Eastern States where the R Value is above one. The smaller the value of R is, the faster the disease is on the decline. If R is greater than one, the number of infected people is increasing in each round and this is technically called the epidemic phase.
An R-value of 0.95 means, every 100 infected people on an average pass on the infection to 95 other individuals. If the R-value is lesser than 1, it means the number of newly infected people is lower than the number of infected people in the preceding period which means the disease incidence is going down.
The study also showed that R-values of Pune and Delhi are close to one among the metro Cities. The researchers point out that the overall R-value in the country was estimated to be 1.37 during the second wave of COVID-19 infection between March 9 to April 21. It then declined to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1 and then to 1.1 between April 29 and May 7. Between May 9 and 11, the R-value was estimated to be around 0.98. It dropped to 0.82 between May 14 and May 30 and further to 0.78 from May 15 to June 26.
However, the R-value rose to 0.88 from June 20 to July 7 and then to 0.95 from July 3-22. The researchers noted that the country’s overall active cases were fluctuating too much to get a reliable estimate, but the data pointed at a value close to one.
CASES IN KERALA
Kerala on Thursday recorded 22,064 active Covid 19 cases and the Test Positivity rate stood at 13.53 per cent. With the cases rising in the state, the Centre on Thursday said it would depute a six-member team to the state for effective COVID-19 management. National Centre for Disease Control Director SK Singh will lead the team.
When looking at the Northeastern States, the report said that Tripura only has an R-value substantially lower than one. Meanwhile, Manipur went only marginally below one.