Every country is likely to experience extremely hot years every other year by 2030, said a group of researchers in their new study. In the study published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, the researchers claimed that 92 per cent of 165 countries that they looked into are expected to experience extremely hot annual temperatures every two years.
The study said that top five emitters — China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia-are playing a major role in driving global and regional warming and are increasing the probability for extreme hot years, both since the first IPCC report of 1990 and even only since the Paris Agreement of 2015. In the context of their current Paris Agreement emissions pledges, the US, Russia, China, and EU-27 would experience even more severe warming by 2030 if the whole world were to follow the same per capita fossil Co, emissions as them, thed researchers said.
Lead author Lea Beusch (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich university) was quoted as saying that they found “a clear imprint” of the actions of top emitters on the regional scale. Alexander Nauels of Climate Analytics, who co-authored the study was quoted as saying that the study was in itself “very striking”. The researchers found the biggest impact in terms of the frequency of extremely hot years in tropical Africa. The greatest overall temperature increases are in northern high latitude areas, which are warming at a faster rate than the tropics. The increase in extreme hot years is also spatially diverse with tropical Africa being the most severely affected region. Due to its low natural year-to-year variability, even the comparably small shift towards warmer temperatures experienced by tropical Africa results in a sharp increase in extreme hot years The authors stressed that the prediction for the frequency of extreme years could be changed if countries significantly step up efforts to cut pollution.