A new study by the ILO and Poland’s NASK reveals 25% of jobs worldwide are exposed to generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). The research suggests transformation — not job loss — is the more likely outcome for roles affected by GenAI technologies.
Launched on 20 May, the report offers the most detailed global assessment of AI’s impact on labor to date. Titled Generative AI and Jobs, the study combines data from 30,000 tasks with expert validation and AI-assisted scoring. It introduces a global index to assess how GenAI exposure varies across occupations and income levels.
A TOOL BUILT ON REAL JOBS, NOT JUST THEORY
Lead author and ILO researcher Pawel Gmyrek said the index bridges theory and practice using AI models and human expertise. The tool offers countries a replicable method to assess job risk, exposure, and the scope of task-level transformation.
“This tool lets governments respond with precision,” Gmyrek explained, highlighting its ability to guide labor strategies worldwide. Researchers noted the index clusters jobs by “exposure gradients” that reflect how likely each is to face GenAI-driven transformation or automation.
These categories help policymakers determine which jobs need reskilling, protection, or innovation-focused planning.
JOB EXPOSURE HIGHER IN WEALTHIER NATIONS AND AMONG WOMEN
GenAI exposure is highest in high-income countries. The study shows it affects 34% of jobs. This is compared to the global average of 25%. Women remain disproportionately exposed: in wealthy countries, 9.6% of female jobs face high automation risk — nearly triple that for men.
This gender imbalance raises concerns over inequality in digital transformation and emphasizes the need for gender-sensitive policy design.
Clerical roles are most vulnerable due to their routine, text-based tasks — many of which GenAI can already handle. Meanwhile, creative and digital knowledge jobs in media, software, and finance also show growing exposure.
FULL AUTOMATION STILL LIMITED BY HUMAN NEED
The report clarifies that while GenAI can improve efficiency, full job automation remains unlikely for most occupations. Many roles, especially those involving critical judgment or emotional intelligence, still require significant human input.
The study cites software developers as an example. Their tasks may shift but won’t disappear. Human oversight stays essential.
Jobs requiring low digital skills may be more at risk unless paired with proactive reskilling and training support. “Task evolution, not job extinction, is the central trend,” the authors conclude.
POLICIES WILL DECIDE THE HUMAN OUTCOME OF GENAI
The ILO emphasizes that policy — not technology — will shape whether GenAI leads to decent work or job displacement. Governments must create inclusive digital transition plans, tailored to local labor markets and capacity gaps.
Strong social dialogue between states, employers, and workers will be critical in protecting livelihoods during AI transitions.
“Inclusive strategies can raise productivity while safeguarding job quality,” said Marek Troszyński of NASK, a co-author of the report. The team will next apply the exposure index to Poland’s national labor force data to fine-tune policy insights.
POTENTIAL VS. REALITY: NOT ALL EXPOSURE LEADS TO LOSS
The authors stress the data reflects potential exposure, not actual displacement, due to varying technological readiness by country and sector. Gaps in infrastructure, training, and digital literacy will limit short-term implementation of GenAI solutions across most industries.
Even in high-risk sectors, human skills remain vital, and many jobs will evolve alongside technology rather than vanish. This approach contrasts alarmist predictions of widespread automation-driven unemployment in the near term.
The study positions GenAI as a catalyst for change, not collapse.
THE NEED FOR CLARITY AMID THE AI HYPE
ILO Senior Economist Janine Berg urged balance in the AI conversation: “It’s easy to get lost in the hype. We need clarity.”
She said the new index offers essential context, allowing nations to prepare labor markets for an equitable digital future. The ILO urges governments to integrate this tool into national workforce planning and education system reforms.
“Preparation beats panic,” Berg noted. “This tool helps countries respond intelligently, not react fearfully.”
MORE ILO–NASK REPORTS TO FOLLOW
This release marks the first in a planned series of ILO–NASK studies. These studies examine how GenAI will affect the global labor market. Future reports will focus on national trends, sector-specific risk, and policy blueprints for emerging and low-income economies.
These will help tailor AI strategies for diverse job markets and economic contexts around the world.
The ILO aims to support fair digital transitions. Technological change should enhance, not erode, human dignity at work. The index and its forthcoming updates are set to become crucial resources in shaping future labor governance.
TRANSFORMING WORK, NOT ENDING IT
Generative AI is set to redefine 1 in 4 jobs globally, mostly through task transformation rather than wholesale replacement. Women, clerical workers, and high-income nations will see the highest exposure, underscoring the need for targeted, inclusive policy.
The ILO–NASK index helps governments pinpoint where intervention is most urgent and effective.
The key to fair outcomes lies not in stopping AI, but in guiding its use to improve work, not eliminate it. With the right investments and strategies, countries can turn AI risks into opportunities for more meaningful and secure jobs.
