75 Per Cent Vehilcles To be Electric By 2050

75 Per Cent Vehilcles To be Electric By 2050

India would see an increased sale of electric vehicles in the coming years with an estimate sale comprising 30 per cent and 75 per cent of the new vehicle sales by 2030 and 2050, according to an independent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water(CEEW).

In the CEEW study titled ‘India Transport Energy Outlook’, the authors said that half of the new two-wheelers and over a quarter of new three- and four-wheelers sold in 2030 could be electric. In such a scenario, the report stated that the Centre and state governments need to invest more in charging infrastructure and support local supply chain development to support this rapid growth in electric vehicle sales.

FOUR WHEELER ELECTRIC VEHICLES; EXPONENTIAL INCREASE

With economic development, the report mentions an exponential increase in four-wheelers that will drive the future growth of passenger transport. “In the next three decades, we estimate four-wheeler ownership to grow by nine times whereas ownership of two-wheelers will saturate with rising income levels,” the report said.

It further stated that ownership of two-wheelers would saturate with rising income levels. The overwhelming shift to four-wheelers, aided by rising income levels, would significantly impact the transport sector’s energy demand and emissions. At present, India’s transport sector accounts for around 21 per cent of the total energy consumed and produces fewer emissions compared to developed countries.

The falling cost of electric vehicles could lead to their faster adoption if the necessary support infrastructure is developed in parallel, the CEEW said.

Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi  Fellow, CEEW, said, “Energy demand from India’s transport sector is set to grow manifold over the next 30 years, in line with the expected rise in the per capita income. Therefore, decarbonising the transport sector, especially the hard-to-abate aviation sector and long-distance freight transport, is crucial for India’s short and long-term climate goals. Our policymakers should prioritise investing in developing local supply chains and charging networks for electric vehicles and create policies that would encourage adoption of public transport. At the same time, India should also seek global partnerships to develop an ecosystem to promote research and development for green hydrogen in the transport sector.”

FREIGHT SERVICE AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

In the report, the CEEW authors say that India’s freight service demand is expected to jump five times to 10,000 billion tonne kilometers by 2050 from nearly 2,000 billion tonne kilometers in 2020. As such green hydrogen and natural gas would have to play a crucial role in reducing emissions from the freight transport sector, they added.

PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND ELECTRIC VEHICLESS      

The CEEW study SAYS that the rapid growth of private passenger vehicles implies that the share of public transport will continue to decline, a matter of concern for policymakers. This will also have implications for congestion and transport infrastructure development.

CEEW Senior Programme Lead, Himani Jain said, “India is poised to witness rapid urbanisation in the coming decades and demand for houses in the cities is likely to grow substantially by 2050. With increased pressure on land as a resource, restricting ownership and use of personal vehicles would be necessary. To avoid a surge in energy demand and space from the transport sector, policymakers should encourage adoption of public transport, especially in major cities with high penetration of personal vehicles. Further, investments in the EV ecosystem would help convince customers to replace their traditional vehicles with EVs.”

In 2021, India launched two production-linked incentive schemes to attract investments in local manufacturing of electric vehicles and advanced chemistry cell batteries. On the demand side, India has been offering incentives for electric vehicle purchases through the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicle (FAME) scheme. 

In 2021, the union government announced the production-linked incentive scheme to attract investments in domestic manufacturing of components for white goods such as air conditioners and refrigerators.

With improved economic growth and consequent rise in household income, India’s cooling energy demand is expected to increase eight-fold from the 2018 level to about 1,000 tonnes of refrigeration (TR) by 2038, without interventions, according to data from MoEFCC. This translates to annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 810 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, nearly 7 per cent of the total annual national emissions estimated for 2037. Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, India is committed to phase out 85 per cent of HFCs in use by 2047.

ELECTRIC VEHCILES; WHAT ARE THEY?

An Electric Vehicle is one that uses electric motors for propulsion instead of an internal-combustion engine. As such these vehciles are eco friendlty and an answer to to rising pollution.

EVs first came into existence in the mid-19th century, n the 21st century, EVs have seen a resurgence due to technological developments, and an increased focus on renewable energy.

ELECTRONIC VEHCILES; INDIA

In India, the first decision to incentivise electric vehicles was taken in 2010. The government announced a financial incentive for manufacturers for electric vehicles sold in India with a Rs 95-crore scheme approved by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE). The scheme, effective from November 2010, envisaged incentives of up to 20 per cent on ex-factory prices of vehicles, subject to a maximum limit. However, the subsidy scheme was later withdrawn by the MNRE in March 2012.

In 2013, India unveiled the ‘National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020’ to make a major shift to electric vehicles and to address the issues of national energy security, vehicular pollution and growth of domestic manufacturing capabilities. Though the scheme was to offer subsidies and create supporting infrastructure for e-vehicles, the plan mostly remained on papers. While presenting the Union Budget for 2015-16 in Parliament, then finance minister Arun Jaitley announced faster adoption and manufacturing of electric vehicles (FAME), with an initial outlay of Rs 75 crore. The scheme was announced with an aim to offer incentives for clean-fuel technology cars to boost their sales to up to 7 million vehicles by 2020.

 In 2017, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari made a statement showing India’s intent to move to 100 per cent electric cars by 2030. However, the automobile industry raised concerns over the execution of such a plan. The government subsequently diluted the plan from 100 per cent to 30 per cent. In 2019, the Centre cleared a Rs 10,000-crore programme under the FAME-II scheme. As per this scheme that came into force from April 1, 2019, the main objective is to encourage a faster adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles by offering upfront incentives on purchase of electric vehicles and also by establishing necessary charging infrastructure for EVs.

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