The trajectory of Christianity in China has been marked by historical ebbs and flows, and a latest PEW Research shows that Christianity has stopped growing in that country.
During the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and ’70s, the Chinese government imposed a ban on religion, significantly impacting the practice of Christianity. While the ’80s and ’90s witnessed a resurgence as restrictions eased, recent data suggests that the growth has plateaued.
Government figures from 1982 to 1997 show a significant increase in Christians attending registered churches, doubling from 6 million to 14 million. However, the overall growth appears to have slowed, with stability observed in the share of Chinese adults identifying with Christianity between 2010 and 2018, remaining at about 2%.
CHALLENGES IN MEASUREMENT
Underground Churches and Concealed Identity: There’s evidence of Christians worshiping in unregistered or “house” churches, making accurate measurements challenging. Moreover, some individuals may choose not to disclose their Christian identity due to potential social or financial consequences, especially if affiliated with unregistered congregations.
Political Landscape and COVID-19 Impact: China’s political climate, especially since President Xi Jinping assumed office in 2013, has seen increased restrictions on religious activities. The COVID-19 pandemic, while speculated by some to increase religiosity, doesn’t reflect a revival of Christian identity in survey data from 2021.
Survey Data and Potential Underreporting: Survey-based estimates of China’s Christian population may be conservative.
The Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) between 2010 and 2018 indicates a stable share of adults formally identifying with Christianity at around 2%.
However, broader beliefs in Christian concepts might be more widespread, with some individuals hesitant to reveal their true religious affiliations.
FACTORS INFLUENCING PLATEAUING
Government Policies: Stringent government policies monitoring and discouraging religious activities may have deterred some from becoming or remaining Christian. Bans on religious education for children could hinder the transmission of Christian identity to the next generation.
Demographic patterns suggest a concentration of Christians among older adults, with fewer among the younger population. This poses obstacles to sustained Christian growth in China.
Church Registration Policies: The government’s absorption of unregistered churches into the official system might have removed a motive for concealing Christian identity among the remaining population.
VARIED ESTIMATES AND CONTROVERSIES
Government estimates on China’s Christian population have varied widely. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) estimated 23 million Protestants in 2010, but subsequent estimates ranged from 23 million to 40 million. The State Council reported 38 million Protestants in 2018. Meanwhile, Christian organizations claim higher figures, with estimates ranging from 6% to 9% of the population.
In conclusion, while survey data suggests a levelling off, the true extent of China’s Christian population remains complex, influenced by government policies, demographic factors, and potential underreporting. The interplay of these elements makes an accurate assessment challenging, raising questions about the accuracy of existing estimates and projections.