By 2060, Americans Projected At Higher Cardio Risk

What about the risk of cardiovascular diseases among the Americans in the coming years? A new study projects that the rate of cardio risk factors and disease will increase significantly in the United States by 2060.

The researchers said that substantial increase in cardiovascular trends might contribute to a rising burden on the US health care system. The study published in Journal of the American College of Cardiology, also highlighted the need for equitable access to prevention, education and treatment to prevent future disease.


The researchers utilised the data from the 2020 US Census Bureau for the year 2025 to 2060. They then combined the census counts with the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors or disease based on the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

The researchers evaluated the projected risk factors and diseases in groups based on sex, age (18-44 years; 45-64; 67-79; >80) and race and ethnicity (Asian, Black, Hispanic, White and other). They analyzed projected rates for the following cardiovascular risk factors: diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity; and the following cardiovascular diseases: ischemic heart disease, heart failure, heart attack and stroke.


The researchers pointed out that all four Cardio risk factors could increase from 2025 to 2060 among the general US population. , They said that the largest percentage increase was seen in diabetes (39.3% increase to 55 million persons), followed by dyslipidemia (27.6% to 126M), hypertension (25.1% to 162M) and obesity (18.3% to 126M). The researchers noted that stroke (33.8% to 15M) and heart failure (33.4% to 13M) were the highest projected increases in rates of cardiovascular diseases, followed by ischemic heart disease (30.7% to 29M) and heart attack (16.9% to 16M).

With respect to sex, the researchers said that CV risk factors or diseases would stabilise for males and women would continue to have higher prevalence. They also maintained that all projections for race and ethnicity minority groups exponentially rose. However, they said that projections for White persons gradually decreased. It said that Black population could experience the highest CV risk factor burden among all race and ethnicity. In addition, CVD rate increases are projected to have the highest impact on the Black and Hispanic populations.

Senior author James L. Januzzi Jr noted that their study projected that the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and diseases will continue to rise with worrisome trends. “These striking projections will disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minority populations in the U.S. Understanding these results will hopefully inform future public health policy efforts and allow us to implement prevention and treatment measures in an equitable manner,” the author said.

James L. Januzzi Jr., is cardiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital, Cardiology Division, Hutter Family Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School    , Trustee of the ACC, and senior author of the study.


In the study, the authors recommend giving much emphasis to education regarding Cardio risk factors, improving access to quality health care and facilitating lower-cost access to effective treatment therapies. They also called for developing a health policy to improve health care access to historically neglected populations. The researchers also wanted to implement customised preventive strategies and dismantle broader systems leaving racial and ethnic minorities with inferior care.

Lead author of the study Reza Mohebi said that health care policymakers would need to allocate preventive measures and health care resources to the more vulnerable populations to tackle the future burden of cardiovascular disease. Reza Mohebi is a Dennis and Marilyn Barry Fellow in Cardiology at Massachusetts General Hospital.

As per the Centers For Disease Control and prevention

  • In the United States, someone has a heart attack every 40 seconds.2
  • Every year, about 805,000 people in the United Stateshave a heart attack.2  Of these, 605,000 are a first heart attack,  200,000 happen to people who have already had a heart attack
  • About 1 in 5 heart attacks are silent—the damage is done, but the person is not aware of it.2
  • Coronary heart disease is the most common type of heart disease, killing 382,820 people in 2020.2
  • About 20.1 million adults age 20 and older have CAD (about 7.2%).2
  • In 2020, about 2 in 10 deaths from CAD happen in adults less than 65 years old.


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